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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 97

Washington Commanders 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 19

What Actually Happened

(5:53) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to PHI 47, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -3.35 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.00 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 97, worth -6.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

PUNT -2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 53, worth -2.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model