4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 46

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 5-T.Way punts 33 yards to PHI 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.54 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model