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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 52

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:22) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to PIT 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-80-R.Louis.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.99 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.75 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP