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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
Sunday 2017-09-10 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread -10.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

PIT
72.3%
CLE
27.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PIT: DeShone Kizer (CLE) -0.231 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.111 EPA/dropback
  • CLE offense: -0.143 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.122 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 25
–
CLE 17
Projected margin: PIT by 8 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

PIT

Jerald Hawkins T Out Knee
Bud Dupree LB Questionable Shoulder

CLE

Myles Garrett DE Out Ankle
Danny Shelton DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 21
–
CLE 18

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:52 TD PIT (12:52) 4-B.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by 44-T.Matakevich, Center-47-C.Hughlett, RECOVERED by PIT-56-A.Chickillo at CLE -8. TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – CLE 0
  • Q1 00:24 TD CLE (:24) 7-D.Kizer up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 7 – CLE 6
  • Q2 00:49 TD PIT (:49) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 81-J.James for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – CLE 7
  • Q3 09:31 FG CLE (9:31) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. PIT 14 – CLE 10
  • Q3 05:43 TD PIT (5:43) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 81-J.James for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 20 – CLE 10
  • Q4 03:40 TD CLE (3:40) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short left to 19-C.Coleman for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT-27-J.Wilcox was injured during the play. PENALTY on PIT-27-J.Wilcox, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. PIT 21 – CLE 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (12:52) 4-B.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by 44-T.Matakevich, Center-47-C.Hughlett, RECOVERED by PIT-56-A.Chickillo at CLE -8. TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 20 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (8:09) 4-B.Colquitt punts 58 yards to PIT 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-E.Rogers ran ob at PIT 26 for 11 yards (50-B.Bello).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 16 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:53) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to CLE 32, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 12 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:06) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to CLE 13, Center-57-K.Canaday. 22-J.Peppers pushed ob at CLE 22 for 9 yards (90-T.Watt).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 19%

    (11:22) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to PIT 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-80-R.Louis.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.67 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (8:52) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to CLE 40, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 47%

    (7:30) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 26 yards to PIT 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-87-S.DeValve.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (5:30) 4-J.Berry punts 59 yards to CLE 11, Center-57-K.Canaday. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 36 for 25 yards (88-D.Heyward-Bey; 57-K.Canaday).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:04) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to PIT 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 17 for 8 yards (52-J.Burgess). PENALTY on PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at PIT 17.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:03) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to CLE 41, Center-57-K.Canaday. 22-J.Peppers MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 41. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 41 for no gain (54-L.Fort).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (9:31) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 42%

    (2:03) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short left to 87-S.DeValve to PIT 36 for 6 yards (22-W.Gay).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 13 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:47) 4-B.Colquitt punts 61 yards to PIT 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 24 for 13 yards (27-M.Dayes).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (3:40) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short left to 19-C.Coleman for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT-27-J.Wilcox was injured during the play. PENALTY on PIT-27-J.Wilcox, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.