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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 79

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(8:52) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to CLE 40, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.98 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 79, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.09 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 36, worth -2.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.67 EP