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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 40

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:30) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 26 yards to PIT 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-87-S.DeValve.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.92 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP