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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 19 at the 84

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 4-B.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by 44-T.Matakevich, Center-47-C.Hughlett, RECOVERED by PIT-56-A.Chickillo at CLE -8. TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -3.03 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 42, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model