Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 60

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to PIT 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 17 for 8 yards (52-J.Burgess). PENALTY on PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at PIT 17.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.49 EP
62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model