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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 18 at the 83

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(14:03) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to CLE 41, Center-57-K.Canaday. 22-J.Peppers MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 41. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 41 for no gain (54-L.Fort).

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 83, worth -5.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 41, worth -2.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model