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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 72

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 4-B.Colquitt punts 61 yards to PIT 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 24 for 13 yards (27-M.Dayes).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.92 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model