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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 3

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(3:40) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short left to 19-C.Coleman for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT-27-J.Wilcox was injured during the play. PENALTY on PIT-27-J.Wilcox, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +3.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.30 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 3, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model