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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 20 at the 73

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 4-B.Colquitt punts 58 yards to PIT 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-E.Rogers ran ob at PIT 26 for 11 yards (50-B.Bello).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.95 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 31, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model