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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 16 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(5:53) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to CLE 32, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.43 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 80, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 37, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model