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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 88

Buffalo Bills 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to CAR 40, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at CAR 44 for 4 yards (44-D.Lacey).

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.46 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model