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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2017-09-17 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

BUF
48.4%
CAR
51.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.095 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Cam Newton (CAR): -0.048 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BUF offense: +0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 21
–
CAR 22
Projected margin: CAR by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

BUF

Jerel Worthy DT Out Concussion
Leonard Johnson CB Questionable Quadricep

CAR

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 3
–
CAR 9

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 31 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:54 FG CAR (8:54) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. BUF 0 – CAR 3
  • Q2 02:06 FG CAR (2:06) 9-G.Gano 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. BUF 0 – CAR 6
  • Q4 11:15 FG BUF (11:15) 4-S.Hauschka 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 3 – CAR 6
  • Q4 02:38 FG CAR (2:38) 9-G.Gano 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. BUF 3 – CAR 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 93%

    (8:54) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:56) 6-C.Schmidt punts 57 yards to CAR 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 14 for 5 yards (57-L.Alexander; 50-R.Humber).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.91 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 39%

    (2:34) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to BUF 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-K.Clay.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (:34) 6-C.Schmidt punts 52 yards to CAR 31, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at CAR 40 for 9 yards (33-C.Anderson).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 15 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:04) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to CAR 40, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at CAR 44 for 4 yards (44-D.Lacey).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (2:06) 9-G.Gano 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:38) 6-C.Schmidt punts 41 yards to CAR 38, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 22-C.McCaffrey.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 19 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (:13) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to BUF 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 41%

    (12:39) 25-L.McCoy left end to CAR 45 for -1 yards (58-T.Davis).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 18 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (10:50) 5-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to BUF 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-K.Clay to BUF 21 for 2 yards (55-D.Mayo; 42-C.Jones).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 15 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:30) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to CAR 29, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 30 for 1 yard (18-A.Holmes).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 17 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:23) 5-M.Palardy punts 55 yards to BUF 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-K.Clay MUFFS catch, recovered by BUF-20-S.Wright at BUF 24. 20-S.Wright to BUF 24 for no gain (52-J.Norris). PENALTY on BUF-36-T.Elston, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 24.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (3:33) 6-C.Schmidt punts 56 yards to CAR 7, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at CAR 18 for 11 yards (50-R.Humber).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 81%

    (11:15) 4-S.Hauschka 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (2:38) 9-G.Gano 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 11 at the 33 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.67 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 69%

    (:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep right to 11-Z.Jones.