Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 62

Carolina Panthers 6 – Buffalo Bills 0

(10:50) 5-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to BUF 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-K.Clay to BUF 21 for 2 yards (55-D.Mayo; 42-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.09 EP
76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 62, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model