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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 0 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to CAR 29, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 30 for 1 yard (18-A.Holmes).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.11 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model