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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 33

Buffalo Bills 3 – Carolina Panthers 9

What Actually Happened

(:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep right to 11-Z.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.45 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 33, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 43, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.67 EP