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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 66

Buffalo Bills 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:56) 6-C.Schmidt punts 57 yards to CAR 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 14 for 5 yards (57-L.Alexander; 50-R.Humber).

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP