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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 45

Carolina Panthers 3 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to BUF 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-K.Clay.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.08 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 45, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.23 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.91 EP