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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 59

Chicago Bears 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26

What Actually Happened

(6:11) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to TB 8, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.21 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model