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Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
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TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
Sunday 2017-09-17 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CHI
26.6%
TB
73.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB defense: -0.102 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Jameis Winston (TB): +0.182 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB on 7 more days rest than CHI
  • CHI defense: +0.137 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 20
–
TB 29
Projected margin: TB by 9 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

CHI

Benny Cunningham RB Doubtful Ankle
Deon Bush S Questionable Hamstring
Prince Amukamara CB Questionable Ankle
Josh Bellamy WR Questionable Ankle
Leonard Floyd LB Questionable Back
Jordan Howard RB Questionable Shoulder
Christian Jones LB Questionable Back
Kyle Long G Questionable Ankle
Markus Wheaton WR Questionable Finger

TB

Devante Bond LB Out Knee
Kwon Alexander LB Questionable Illness
Evan Smith C Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 7
–
TB 29

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:02 FG TB (9:02) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. CHI 0 – TB 3
  • Q1 00:15 TD TB (:15) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-21-Q.Demps, Defensive Holding, declined. CHI 0 – TB 9
  • Q2 07:35 TD TB (7:35) 32-J.Rodgers up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – TB 16
  • Q2 04:21 TD TB (4:21) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass short left intended for 15-J.Bellamy INTERCEPTED by 36-R.McClain [93-G.McCoy] at CHI 47. 36-R.McClain for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. CHI 0 – TB 23
  • Q2 00:04 FG TB (:04) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. CHI 0 – TB 26
  • Q4 12:29 FG TB (12:29) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. CHI 0 – TB 29
  • Q4 01:49 TD CHI (1:49) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass short left to 14-D.Thompson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – TB 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 13 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 85%

    (9:02) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 20%

    (:28) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 42 yards to CHI 11, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 11 for no gain (29-R.Smith). FUMBLES (29-R.Smith), RECOVERED by TB-52-C.Lynch at CHI 13. 52-C.Lynch to CHI 13 for no gain (29-T.Cohen).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (1:12) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-49-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (14:24) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 63 yards to TB 5, Center-49-A.DePaola. 18-B.Reedy to TB 22 for 17 yards (27-S.McManis).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:11) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to TB 8, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (12:29) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 14
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (9:32) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass incomplete short middle to 86-Z.Miller [93-G.McCoy].

  • Q4 TB 4th & 14 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:58) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 54 yards to CHI 36, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 46 for 10 yards (52-C.Lynch).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 97%

    (5:42) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass incomplete short right to 86-Z.Miller (23-C.Conte).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 88 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (3:57) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to CHI 38, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.