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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(12:29) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 5, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP