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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 7

Chicago Bears 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29

What Actually Happened

(5:42) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass incomplete short right to 86-Z.Miller (23-C.Conte).

The Three Options

GO +2.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.71 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 7, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model