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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:02) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.31 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model