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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 53

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(:28) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 42 yards to CHI 11, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 11 for no gain (29-R.Smith). FUMBLES (29-R.Smith), RECOVERED by TB-52-C.Lynch at CHI 13. 52-C.Lynch to CHI 13 for no gain (29-T.Cohen).

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.00 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 53, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 15, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP