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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 40

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 9-J.Tucker 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.62 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
What Happened
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model