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Cleveland Browns

0-2 HC Hue Jackson
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Baltimore Ravens

2-0 HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2017-09-17 · 13:00 ET M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

CLE
25.3%
BAL
74.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.150 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.013 vs DeShone Kizer (CLE) -0.067 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CLE 18 11–25
–
BAL 25 18–32
Projected margin: BAL by 7 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

CLE

Myles Garrett DE Out Ankle
T.Y. McGill DT Out Back

BAL

Jaylen Hill CB Out Thigh
Sheldon Price CB Out Concussion
Za'Darius Smith LB Out Knee
Michael Campanaro WR Questionable Ankle
Tim Williams LB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 10
–
BAL 24

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:02 TD BAL (4:02) 28-T.West left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – BAL 6
  • Q2 07:24 TD BAL (7:24) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 37-J.Allen for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – BAL 13
  • Q2 05:04 TD CLE (5:04) 8-K.Hogan pass deep right to 85-D.Njoku for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – BAL 14
  • Q2 00:05 TD BAL (:05) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 18-J.Maclin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CLE 7 – BAL 20
  • Q3 09:24 FG CLE (9:24) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 10 – BAL 21
  • Q4 15:00 FG BAL (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CLE 10 – BAL 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:22) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to BAL 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BAL 4th & 15 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 39%

    (10:14) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 37 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:51) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 38 yards to BAL 31, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-M.Campanaro pushed ob at BAL 36 for 5 yards (10-S.Coates).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 18 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:58) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 54 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 22 for 8 yards (41-A.Levine Sr.). PENALTY on CLE-85-D.Njoku, Unnecessary Roughness, 7 yards, enforced at CLE 14.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 14 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:53) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to BAL 42, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-M.Campanaro to CLE 47 for 11 yards (27-M.Dayes). PENALTY on BAL-48-P.Onwuasor, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 42.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 54%

    (1:01) 9-J.Tucker 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.62 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 27%

    (12:20) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 33 yards to CLE 18, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-36-C.Clark.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CLE 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%

    (9:24) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BAL 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:28) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 63 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CLE 4th & 14 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:27) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 67 yards to BAL 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 37 for 14 yards (20-B.Boddy-Calhoun).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 34%

    (3:48) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 11 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 59%

    (1:35) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short middle to 87-S.DeValve to BAL 26 for 12 yards (57-C.Mosley).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 23 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.62 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 87%

    (:32) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass incomplete short middle to 10-S.Coates [56-T.Williams].

    See the full breakdown →