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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 51

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(12:20) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 33 yards to CLE 18, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-36-C.Clark.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.93 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 51, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.62 EP