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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 20

Cleveland Browns 7 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(9:24) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.05 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 20, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model