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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 10

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.76 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 10, worth +0.62 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT +0.53 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model