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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 66

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to DEN 22, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP