DAL @ DEN — 4th & Data

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Denver Broncos

2-0 HC Vance Joseph

Sunday 2017-09-17 · 16:25 ET Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

DAL

47.6%

DEN

52.4%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

DEN defense: -0.158 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
DEN offense: -0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.202 EPA/dropback in prior starts
DAL offense: +0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
Played at altitude (3,000+ ft)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DAL 22 15–29

–

DEN 23 16–30

Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

DAL

Anthony Hitchens LB Out Knee

Orlando Scandrick CB Out Hand

Byron Jones S Questionable Groin

Terrance Williams WR Questionable Ankle

DEN

Jared Crick DE Out Back

Brendan Langley CB Out Knee

Paxton Lynch QB Out right Shoulder

Devontae Booker RB Out Wrist

Zach Kerr DE Questionable Knee

Ronald Leary G Questionable Concussion

Darian Stewart S Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 17

–

DEN 42

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 09:30 TD DEN (9:30) 13-T.Siemian pass short middle to 10-E.Sanders for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – DEN 6
Q2 12:43 TD DAL (12:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-D.Bryant for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – DEN 7
Q2 06:01 TD DEN (6:01) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short middle to 22-C.Anderson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – DEN 13
Q2 01:43 TD DEN (1:43) 13-T.Siemian pass short right to 10-E.Sanders for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – DEN 20
Q2 00:08 FG DAL (:08) 5-D.Bailey 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 10 – DEN 21
Q3 08:01 TD DEN (8:01) 13-T.Siemian pass short right to 85-V.Green for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 10 – DEN 27
Q3 06:23 TD DEN (6:23) 22-C.Anderson left tackle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 10 – DEN 34
Q4 14:32 TD DAL (14:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 82-J.Witten for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – DEN 35
Q4 01:12 TD DEN (1:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 88-D.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Talib at DEN -3. 21-A.Talib for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 17 – DEN 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 66

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP

p(convert) 70%

(13:19) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to DEN 22, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 DAL 4th & 7 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(6:31) 6-C.Jones punts 54 yards to DEN 6, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 31

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP

p(convert) 54% p(FG) 74%

(2:29) 8-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 39

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP

p(convert) 49% p(FG) 54%

(15:00) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 DAL 4th & 14 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(4:36) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to DEN 29, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 84-I.McKenzie pushed ob at DEN 49 for 20 yards (45-R.Smith).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 38

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 57%

(:08) 5-D.Bailey 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 DAL 4th & 4 at the 57

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(4:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-D.Bryant to DEN 48 for 9 yards (25-C.Harris).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 DAL 4th & 4 at the 42

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 46%

(2:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 82-J.Witten [58-V.Miller].
See the full breakdown →
Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 30

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 76%

(:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to DEN 25 for 5 yards (91-K.Edebali; 31-J.Simmons).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP

p(convert) 58%

(12:37) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to DAL 19, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-33-D.Henderson.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53%

(11:47) 6-C.Jones punts 62 yards to DEN 12, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 12 for no gain (51-K.Wilber). Penalty on DEN-29-B.Roby, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on DEN-95-D.Wolfe, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at DEN 12.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 DEN 4th & 15 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(6:21) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to DAL 35, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 7 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 97%

(3:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Bryant (29-B.Roby).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 90 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(3:34) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to DAL 44, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-R.Switzer to DEN 37 for 19 yards (42-C.Kreiter).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

(1:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 88-D.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Talib at DEN -3. 21-A.Talib for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown →

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