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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 79

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to DEN 29, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 84-I.McKenzie pushed ob at DEN 49 for 20 yards (45-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 79, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 36, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model