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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 38

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(:08) 5-D.Bailey 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.33 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model