Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 70

Denver Broncos 35 – Dallas Cowboys 17

(6:21) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to DAL 35, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.03 EP
73% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 70, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model