Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 90

Denver Broncos 35 – Dallas Cowboys 17

(3:34) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to DAL 44, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-R.Switzer to DEN 37 for 19 yards (42-C.Kreiter).

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.38 EP
60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 90, worth -5.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model