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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 31

Denver Broncos 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 8-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.25 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 31, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 41, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT +0.55 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP