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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 17 at the 71

New York Giants 7 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(5:49) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to DET 24, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 39-J.Agnew to DET 28 for 4 yards (26-O.Darkwa, 17-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.69 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 71, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 29, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model