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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
Monday 2017-09-18 · 20:30 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

DET
43.3%
NYG
56.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.137 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • NYG defense: -0.124 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Eli Manning (NYG): -0.072 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DET defense: +0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • DET offense: -0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 20
–
NYG 23
Projected margin: NYG by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

DET

Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Knee

NYG

Keenan Robinson LB Out Concussion
D.J. Fluker G Questionable Shin
B.J. Goodson LB Questionable Shin
Odell Beckham WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 24
–
NYG 10

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:00 TD DET (4:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – NYG 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD NYG (15:00) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle to 88-E.Engram for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYG-88-E.Engram, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DET 7 – NYG 6
  • Q2 08:53 TD DET (8:53) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 85-E.Ebron for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – NYG 7
  • Q2 00:39 FG DET (:39) 5-M.Prater 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke. DET 17 – NYG 7
  • Q3 05:04 FG NYG (5:04) 2-A.Rosas 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. DET 17 – NYG 10
  • Q4 13:17 TD DET (13:17) 9-B.Wing punts 60 yards to DET 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 39-J.Agnew for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 23 – NYG 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:34) 18-J.Locke punts 40 yards to NYG 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 9 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:51) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to DET 46, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 17 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:49) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to DET 24, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 39-J.Agnew to DET 28 for 4 yards (26-O.Darkwa, 17-D.Harris).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 16 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:28) 18-J.Locke punts 51 yards to NYG 27, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 17-D.Harris to NYG 37 for 10 yards (36-D.Washington, 80-M.Roberts).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 13 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:08) 9-B.Wing punts 50 yards to DET 16, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 39-J.Agnew pushed ob at DET 25 for 9 yards (46-C.Munson).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 38
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 57%

    (:39) 5-M.Prater 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:04) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to DET 26, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:56) 18-J.Locke punts 47 yards to NYG 26, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 17-D.Harris pushed ob at NYG 25 for -1 yards (54-S.Longa).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (5:04) 2-A.Rosas 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 13 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 21%

    (14:49) 18-J.Locke punts 34 yards to NYG 19, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:17) 9-B.Wing punts 60 yards to DET 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 39-J.Agnew for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 23%

    (10:08) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 34-S.Vereen to DET 49 for 3 yards (28-Q.Diggs). Detroit challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 34-S.Vereen to 50 for 2 yards (28-Q.Diggs).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 36%

    (7:59) 18-J.Locke punts 37 yards to NYG 9, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 78%

    (4:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 13-O.Beckham.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.03 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 85%

    (:32) 25-T.Riddick right tackle to NYG 24 for no gain (94-D.Tomlinson).