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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 38

Detroit Lions 14 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(:39) 5-M.Prater 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.69 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 47, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP