Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 71

New York Giants 7 – Detroit Lions 17

(13:04) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to DET 26, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 71, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model