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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 53

Detroit Lions 17 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(14:49) 18-J.Locke punts 34 yards to NYG 19, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.23 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 53, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.77 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model