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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 46

Detroit Lions 24 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 18-J.Locke punts 37 yards to NYG 9, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.14 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 13, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model