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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 29

New York Giants 10 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(4:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 13-O.Beckham.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.50 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 29, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 39, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP