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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 24

Detroit Lions 24 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(:32) 25-T.Riddick right tackle to NYG 24 for no gain (94-D.Tomlinson).

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +1.50 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 24, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 34, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.03 EP