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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 56

Green Bay Packers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 8-J.Vogel punts 47 yards to ATL 9, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.58 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 56, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model