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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
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ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2017-09-17 · 20:30 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 55.0

Win Probability

GB
37.1%
ATL
62.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.265 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.176 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.357 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.274 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

GB 23
–
ATL 28
Projected margin: ATL by 5 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

GB

Jason Spriggs T Out Hamstring
Ahmad Brooks LB Doubtful Concussion
Montravius Adams DT Questionable Foot
David Bakhtiari T Questionable Hamstring
Kentrell Brice S Questionable Quadricep
Bryan Bulaga T Questionable Ankle
Mike Daniels DT Questionable Hip

ATL

Brian Hill RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 23
–
ATL 34

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:55 TD ATL (9:55) 24-D.Freeman right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL-73-R.Schraeder was injured during the play. He is Out. GB 0 – ATL 6
  • Q1 03:47 TD GB (3:47) 88-T.Montgomery left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – ATL 7
  • Q2 11:14 TD ATL (11:14) 24-D.Freeman right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – ATL 13
  • Q2 03:27 FG ATL (3:27) 3-M.Bryant 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. GB 7 – ATL 17
  • Q2 00:24 TD ATL (:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 26-T.Coleman for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – ATL 23
  • Q3 14:17 TD ATL (14:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 21 for -9 yards (44-V.Beasley). FUMBLES (44-V.Beasley) [44-V.Beasley], RECOVERED by ATL-21-D.Trufant at GB 15. 21-D.Trufant for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the backward pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. GB 7 – ATL 30
  • Q3 09:37 FG GB (9:37) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel. GB 10 – ATL 31
  • Q3 04:25 FG ATL (4:25) 3-M.Bryant 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. GB 10 – ATL 34
  • Q4 12:50 TD GB (12:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – ATL 34
  • Q4 05:54 TD GB (5:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 88-T.Montgomery for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 22 – ATL 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 13 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:41) 8-J.Vogel punts 44 yards to ATL 23, Center-61-B.Goode. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at ATL 27 for 4 yards (51-K.Fackrell). PENALTY on ATL-36-K.Ishmael, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 23. Penalty on ATL-34-B.Poole, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:29) 8-J.Vogel punts 47 yards to ATL 9, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 15 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 71%

    (3:27) 3-M.Bryant 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:09) 8-J.Vogel punts 28 yards to ATL 44, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-25-M.Evans.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:17) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to GB 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Davis. PENALTY on GB-83-J.Janis, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at GB 10.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (9:37) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 12 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 67%

    (4:25) 3-M.Bryant 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to ATL 47 for 7 yards (37-R.Allen).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 71%

    (12:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 24%

    (9:43) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to GB 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Davis. Penalty on GB-47-J.Ryan, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 9 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 44%

    (1:13) 5-M.Bosher punts 32 yards to GB 12, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-14-J.Hardy.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 88 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 39%

    (:48) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 80-M.Bennett to GB 30 for 18 yards (59-D.Campbell).