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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 33

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 3-M.Bryant 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.77 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model