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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 10

Green Bay Packers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 31

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 10, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model